Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Testing Period

  • 5/7/26 Baseball Picks

    Eleventh Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Washington Nationals ML -110, 6%
    • Colorado Rockies ML +120, 7.5%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 10%
    • Athletics ML +115, 11%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +145, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Texas Rangers vs New York YankeesTexas Rangers44.02%-0.0097+125
    Minnesota Twins vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals57.93%0.1065-110
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals63.21%0.0682-145
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs64.29%-0.0356-200
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies53.83%0.1842+120
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates62.52%0.1941-110
    Athletics vs Philadelphia PhilliesAthletics58.28%0.2531+115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins56.65%0.0198-125
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox57.91%0.0598-120
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals55.71%0.3648+145

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Texas Rangers vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.98%
    Minnesota Twins vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals57.93%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals63.21%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs64.29%
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies53.83%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates62.52%
    Athletics vs Philadelphia PhilliesAthletics58.28%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins56.65%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox57.91%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals55.71%

  • 5/6/26 Recap

    I’ve been going through it these past couple days. Courtesy of the awful Giants of course. Accuracy still looks fine though even though the picks aren’t hitting so I think it’s less model bad and more just being unlucky.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 2/7
    Net Units: -2.90u
    ROI: -41.43%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 20/40
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/40
    Picks won: 6/18
    Net Units: -5.62u
    ROI: -31.22%

  • 5/6/26 Baseball Picks

    Tenth Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -105, 11%
    • San Francisco Giants ML +100, 17.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML -115, 11.5%
    • Atlanta Braves ML +115, 8.5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML +105, 9%
    • Athletics ML +145, 7.5%
    • Cleveland Guardians ML +105, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.46%-0.0003-140
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.24%0.2136-105
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers68.52%0.0141-210
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants68.06%0.3476+100
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox64.35%0.2034-115
    Atlanta Braves vs Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves55.72%0.1979+115
    Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox57.93%0.1876+105
    Athletics vs Philadelphia PhilliesAthletics49.90%0.2225+145
    Baltimore Orioles vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins56.70%-0.0134-135
    Minnesota Twins vs Washington NationalsMinnesota Twins56.38%-0.0190-135
    Texas Rangers vs New York YankeesTexas Rangers42.44%0.0823+155
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds41.78%0.0236+145
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians54.59%0.1192+105
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies 48.28%0.1587+140
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates63.13%0.0542-150

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.46%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.24%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers68.52%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants68.06%
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox64.35%
    Atlanta Braves vs Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves55.72%
    Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox57.93%
    Athletics vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies50.10%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins56.70%
    Minnesota Twins vs Washington NationalsMinnesota Twins56.38%
    Texas Rangers vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees57.56%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.22%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians54.59%
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesNew York Mets51.72%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates63.13%

  • 5/5/26 Recap

    Logan Webb is a terrorist. Also, Cardinals and Mets game pushed to tmrw.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 4/13
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/13
    Picks won: 1/5
    Net Units: -2.90u
    ROI: -58.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 12/25
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/25
    Picks won: 4/11
    Net Units: -2.72u
    ROI: -24.70%

  • 5/5/26 Baseball Picks

    Ninth Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Athletics ML +150, 5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 10%
    • Chicago White Sox ML -105, 12.5%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 5%
    • Atlanta Braves ML +110, 7.5%
    • San Francisco Giants ML -130, 11%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox43.66%0.0696+145
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays56.73%0.0042-130
    Athletics vs Philadelphia PhilliesAthletics46.85%0.1711+150
    Baltimore Orioles vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins58.84%0.0237-135
    Minnesota Twins vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals52.57%-0.0169-115
    Texas Rangers vs New York YankeesTexas Rangers54.69%0.0938+100
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds41.57%-0.0024+140
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals47.96%-0.0409+100
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.84%0.1751-115
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers71.51%0.0226-230
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies48.19%0.1325+135
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox63.54%0.2390-105
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates53.73%0.1016+105
    Atlanta Braves vs Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves55.85%0.1728+110
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants66.20%0.1718-130

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.34%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays56.73%
    Athletics vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies53.15%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins58.84%
    Minnesota Twins vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals52.57%
    Texas Rangers vs New York YankeesTexas Rangers54.69%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.43%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians52.04%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.84%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers71.51%
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesNew York Mets51.81%
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox63.54%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates53.73%
    Atlanta Braves vs Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves55.85%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants66.20%

  • 5/4/26 Recap

    Braves choked and idk what was up with the Marlins. Alright day though.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/12
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.18u
    ROI: 3.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/12
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.18u
    ROI: 3.00%

  • 5/4/26 Baseball Picks

    Eighth Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Colorado Rockies ML +115, 7.5%
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 10%
    • Miami Marlins ML -110, 16%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +125, 7.5%
    • Atlanta Braves ML +115, 7%
    • San Francisco Giants ML +110, 18%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies54.43%0.1702+115
    Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.59%0.1117+100
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays63.73%0.1663-120
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins67.74%0.2938-110
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles39.21%0.0980+180
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs70.16%0.0384-210
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals53.18%-0.0162-115
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals50.00%0.0000+100
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers69.52%0.0289-210
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox52.64%0.1843+125
    Atlanta Braves vs Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves53.92%0.1592+115
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants66.43%0.3950+110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    New York Mets vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies54.43%
    Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.59%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays63.73%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins67.74%
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees60.79%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs70.16%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals53.18%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals50.00%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston AstrosLos Angeles Dodgers69.52%
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox52.64%
    Atlanta Braves vs Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves53.92%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants66.43%

  • 5/3/26 Recap

    A lot of chokes today, but they were 50/50 games anyways so I can’t be too mad.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
    Picks won: 1/5
    Net Units: -2.95u
    ROI: -59.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 51/92
    Sportsbook favorites won: 50/92
    Picks won: 19/33
    Net Units: +8.25u
    ROI: 25.00%

  • 5/3/26 Baseball Picks

    Seventh Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 8%
    • Baltimore Orioles ML +190, 4%
    • Miami Marlins ML +125, 5.5%
    • Kansas City Royals ML +105, 6%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +155, 9%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays60.89%0.1386-115
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxHouston Astros44.38%0.0650+140
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates54.89%0.0045-120
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles40.14%0.1641+190
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals*Milwaukee Brewers59.06%0.0099-140
    San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.72%0.0393-130
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins50.61%0.1387+125
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers58.30%-0.0147-145
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks45.06%0.0813+145
    Atlanta Braves vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies44.08%0.0799+145
    Cleveland Guardians vs AthleticsCleveland Guardians58.76%0.0753-120
    New York Mets vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels50.30%0.0562+110
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals54.73%0.1220+105
    Chicago White Sox vs San Diego PadresChicago White Sox50.00%0.2750+155
    Texas Rangers vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers52.33%-0.0424-120

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays60.89%
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.62%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates54.89%
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees59.86%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals*Milwaukee Brewers59.06%
    San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.72%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins50.61%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers58.30%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs54.94%
    Atlanta Braves vs Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves55.92%
    Cleveland Guardians vs AthleticsCleveland Guardians58.76%
    New York Mets vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels50.30%
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals54.73%
    Chicago White Sox vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres50.00%
    Texas Rangers vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers52.33%

    *Missing Brewers starting pitcher

  • 5/2/26 Recap

    Really solid day. White Sox been doing me good.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 3/4
    Net Units: +2.63u
    ROI: 65.75%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 42/77
    Sportsbook favorites won: 40/77
    Picks won: 18/28
    Net Units: +11.20u
    ROI: 40.00%