Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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7/9/26 Baseball Picks

July 9, 2026

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Tampa Bay Rays ML -160, 8.5%
Baltimore Orioles ML -130, 10%
Minnesota Twins ML +110, 8.5%
Boston Red Sox ML +100, 15%
Detroit Tigers ML -140, 12.5%
Miami Marlins ML +125, 4.5%
Los Angeles Angels ML +120, 7%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.18%	0.0836	+100
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	58.05%	-0.0189	-145
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays*	Tampa Bay Rays	68.36%	0.1074	-160
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	65.26%	0.1551	-130
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	56.41%	0.1846	+110
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	65.36%	0.2940	+100
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	68.85%	0.1774	-140
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	49.42%	0.1121	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	63.82%	0.0275	-165
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	62.45%	0.0679	-140
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	53.08%	0.1677	+120
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	53.73%	-0.0489	-130
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants*	Colorado Rockies	47.87%	0.0435	+120

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.18%
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	58.05%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays*	Tampa Bay Rays	68.36%
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	65.26%
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	56.41%
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	65.36%
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	68.85%
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Seattle Mariners	50.58%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	63.82%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	62.45%
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	53.08%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	53.73%
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants*	San Francisco Giants	52.13%

*Missing starting pitcher

7/8/26 Recap

July 8, 2026

Kalshi didn’t let me get Angels at the line I wanted and I missed it. Pretty miffed about that. Also, Rockies won the only match of the series I didn’t bet on lmao. They played really well today but just couldn’t get the RISP in.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: -0.60u
ROI: -10.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 23/39
Sportsbook favorites won: 24/39
Picks won: 7/14
Net Units: -0.79u
ROI: -5.64%

7/8/26 Baseball Picks

July 8, 2026

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Detroit Tigers ML -165, 7.5%
Miami Marlins ML +105, 6.5%
Tampa Bay Rays ML -135, 18.5%
Houston Astros ML +120, 4.5%
Milwaukee Brewers ML -145, 10%
Colorado Rockies ML +190, 18%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	Toronto Blue Jays	51.88%	-0.0403	-117
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	59.18%	0.0652	-125
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	67.91%	0.0933	-165
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	53.28%	-0.0143	-117
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	55.35%	0.1347	+105
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.22%	0.2740	-135
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	50.84%	0.1082	+120
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	Kansas City Royals	45.50%	0.0238	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cincinnati Reds	56.75%	-0.0410	-145
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	50.51%	0.0355	+105
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	51.44%	0.0288	+100
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	67.51%	0.1410	-145
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	48.70%	0.1446	+135
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	57.92%	0.6796	+190
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	62.48%	0.0559	-145

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	Toronto Blue Jays	51.88%
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	59.18%
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	67.91%
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	53.28%
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	55.35%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.22%
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	50.84%
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	54.50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cincinnati Reds	56.75%
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	50.51%
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	51.44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	67.51%
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	51.30%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	57.92%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	62.48%

*Missing Phillies starting pitcher

7/7/26 Recap

July 7, 2026

Mid day. We take it though

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 10/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/16
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.76u
ROI: 15.20%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 15/24
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: -0.19u
ROI: -2.38%

7/7/26 Baseball Picks

July 7, 2026

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Chicago Cubs ML -115, 6.5%
Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 21.5%
Kansas City Royals ML +125, 9.5%
Los Angeles Angels ML +140, 6%
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability	EV	Odds
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	57.36%	N/A	N/A
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Chicago Cubs	59.30%	0.0971	-115
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	69.54%	0.0640	-190
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Atlanta Braves	45.69%	0.0965	+140
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins*	Seattle Mariners	52.55%	0.0510	+100
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.95%	0.3534	-120
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	52.03%	0.0666	+105
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets*	Kansas City Royals	54.85%	0.2342	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	66.67%	0.0600	-170
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	51.18%	0.0134	+100
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	50.09%	0.0269	+105
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	55.69%	N/A	N/A
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	48.56%	0.1656	+140
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.10%	0.2020	+100
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants*	Toronto Blue Jays	54.29%	0.0043	-115
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	67.12%	0.0522	+220

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	57.36%
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Chicago Cubs	59.30%
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	69.54%
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.31%
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins*	Seattle Mariners	52.55%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.95%
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	52.03%
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets*	Kansas City Royals	54.85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	66.67%
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	51.18%
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	50.09%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Milwaukee Brewers	55.69%
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	51.44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.10%
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants*	Toronto Blue Jays	54.29%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	67.12%

*Missing starting pitcher/doubleheader

7/6/26 Recap

July 7, 2026

I was really hoping I would have a comeback go my way for once, but the Rockies couldn’t finish the deal. Pretty bad start to the week.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 5/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.95u
ROI: -31.67%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 5/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.95u
ROI: -31.67%

7/6/26 Baseball Picks

July 6, 2026

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Tampa Bay Rays ML +105, 5.5%
New York Mets ML +110, 19.5%
Colorado Rockies ML +185, 7%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	69.70%	0.0107	-220
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	53.17%	0.1165	+105
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	52.96%	-0.0308	-120
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	67.27%	0.4464	+115
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	54.62%	0.0432	-110
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	59.41%	0.0695	-125
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	56.16%	0.0950	-105
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	44.51%	0.2463	+180

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	69.70%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	53.17%
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	52.96%
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	67.27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	54.62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	59.41%
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	56.16%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.49%

7/5/26 Recap

July 6, 2026

Diamondbacks had the filthiest loss I’ve seen in a while. Also, Cardinal’s manager is an idiot, but we’ve known this for a while.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.12u
ROI: 2.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 50/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 54/94
Picks won: 21/44
Net Units: -2.00u
ROI: -4.55%

7/5/26 Baseball Picks

July 5, 2026

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

New York Mets ML -115, 15.5%
Baltimore Orioles ML -115, 10.5%
Minnesota Twins ML +110, 10.5%
Chicago White Sox ML +115, 11%
St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 6.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 15%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	68.02%	0.2721	-115
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	59.43%	0.0044	-145
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds	Baltimore Orioles	63.83%	0.1809	-115
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	58.46%	0.2277	+110
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	58.27%	0.2527	+115
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals	51.93%	0.1684	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	56.64%	-0.0427	-145
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros*	Houston Astros	60.70%	0.1107	-120
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers	Detroit Tigers	61.69%	0.0918	-130
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	53.40%	-0.0228	-120
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.80%	0.2960	+100
Miami Marlins vs Athletics	Athletics	55.16%	0.0093	-120
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	57.23%	0.0129	-130
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	San Diego Padres	36.10%	-0.0253	+170
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	59.09%	-0.0385	+135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	New York Mets	68.02%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	59.43%
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds	Baltimore Orioles	63.83%
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	58.46%
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	58.27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals	51.93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	56.64%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros*	Houston Astros	60.70%
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers	Detroit Tigers	61.69%
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	53.40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.80%
Miami Marlins vs Athletics	Athletics	55.16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	57.23%
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.90%
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	59.09%

*Missing Rays starting pitcher

7/4/26 Recap

July 5, 2026

Knew this would happen but ofc I got touched today.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -3.25u
ROI: -40.62%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 43/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 47/79
Picks won: 18/38
Net Units: -2.12u
ROI: -5.58%

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